|MAURI MICHELE||Cycle: XXXVII|
Section: Systems and Control
Advisor: CASTELLETTI ANDREA FRANCESCO
Tutor: FAGIANO LORENZO MARIO
Major Research topic:
Evaluating feedback between global and local scale models under environmental objectives and future uncertain scenarios. A case study in the Red River Basin, Vietnam.
Integrated assessment models have been developed over the last 30 years to assess -at the global scale- scenarios of economic development and human needs, and consequent interactions with the climate-driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Conversely, local models for several regions of the world have been developed to simulate the dynamics of resources' demand and supply and plan infrastructure development and management. Consistency across scales becomes relevant when global and local models and projections are considered simultaneously. In models’ trajectories, unexpected dynamics or vulnerabilities might emerge for a particular region or discrepancies occur between a targeted national development pathway and the global changes. Indeed, socio-economic transformations and climate impacts constrain the feasibility of certain future scenarios. The thesis focuses on the case study of the Red River Basin in Vietnam, the second-largest river basin in the country. Two existing models are proposed to study the global-local interactions: GCAM (Global Change Analysis Model) for generating planetary scenarios and the Red River model, which includes the basin's reservoirs and the irrigation needs of the river’s delta. First, the thesis explores the feasibility of the land use and water demand trajectories for the Red River basin which are targeted by the Vietnamese government, to understand the challenges that Vietnam has to face to support the expansion of the economy while adapting to climate impacts (e.g., sea-level rise, coastal erosion, economic losses). Then, the GCAM model will be expanded by adding a specific region for Vietnam, allowing the tracking in a finer resolution of economic and environmental variables for the country. Lastly, policy feedback will be constructed by analyzing the impacts of decisions at the global scale (e.g., a carbon tax on land use) at the basin level. Feedbacks aim at informing large-scale models of local consequences which are inherently not captured, facilitating the development of alternative policies to remediate unintended consequences at the basin level. The last step is the main contribution which goes in the direction of building across-scales consistent future climate-socio-economic scenarios.
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